Namibians will vote on Wednesday in what is expected to be the most competitive election yet for the ruling SWAPO party, which has governed the southern African nation for 34 years.
If SWAPO candidate Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah wins, she will become the country’s first female president. A SWAPO loss would mean the first transition of power to a new party since Namibia gained independence from apartheid South Africa in 1990.
High unemployment, corruption allegations and inequality have eroded SWAPO’s support, which fell to 56% in the 2019 presidential election from 87% in 2014. There are no reliable polls on how it might fare this time.
The frontrunner among 14 opposition candidates is Panduleni Itula, a former dentist who won 29% of votes in 2019 after splitting from SWAPO and now leads a new political party, the Independent Patriots for Change.
Namibians vote separately for members of parliament and for the president, who needs more than 50% of votes to win.
“This will be the most challenging and significant election after the first one of 1989,” Rui Tyitende, a lecturer at the University of Namibia, said.
He said the outcome would largely hinge on the turnout of young voters, who make up more than half the electorate and are more likely to back the opposition.
“Young people are disproportionately affected by unemployment, poverty and consumed with a deep sense of hopelessness,” Tyitende said.
“If they do not pitch, SWAPO will win.”